S&P500 Fundamental Analysis | The Only Guide You Need

The S&P 500 doesn't move on "the economy." It moves on two questions, and one chart that most traders have never opened. This is a full fundamental analysis framework for the S&P500: two variables, four regimes, one wild card, and a 10 minute routine you can run on TradingView to see which regime the market is in before taking a trade. It's the full macro framework the one I actually use. It compresses every macro headline into two questions, so you get a directional bias in about 15 minutes. The two questions: 1. Are growth expectations improving or deteriorating? 2. Are interest rate expectations easing or tightening? Content of the video: 00:00 The chart professionals keep to themselves 02:51 What the S&P500 actually is 04:01 Where the profits come from 05:25 The GDP trap 06:38 The market rallied in a recession 09:03 Expectations, not conditions 10:37 The three things that move the index 11:18 Growth vs expected growth 12:14 GDP vs ISM vs NFCI 13:01 The NFCI, explained simply 15:48 Setting up the NFCI on TradingView 17:36 Who actually controls the NFCI 18:31 Opportunity cost 21:12 How rates leak into the real economy 22:51 Watch what's getting priced 23:42 US2Y vs FED Funds 26:43 The 4 regime cheat sheet 27:47 Regime 1 | Goldilocks 33:00 Regime 2 | Hawkish Risks 34:32 Regime 3 | Macro Squeeze 38:43 Regime 4 | Policy Rescue 40:22 Soft landing or recession? 45:39 The unemployment rate filter 46:24 The cycle 48:02 The wild variable 51:04 A 15 minute routine 52:27 Reading the regime live 54:54 What to do when the regime is mixed 57:05 Fundamentals for direction, technicals for timing Telegram Channel: https://t.me/BeSomebodyFX Website: https://besomebodyfx.com Private Network: https://besomebodyfx.com/besomebodyfx-network/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/besomebodyfx X: https://x.com/BeSomebodyFX DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.